Tampa Real Estate Market Update

May 2024: A Shift Closer to Balance

As we approach the midpoint of 2024, how is the Tampa housing market doing?

In the greater metro, closed sales for single-family homes are down 2.6% for the year to date. However, the Tampa market continues to show potential for investment, with median home prices maintaining year-over-year gains. Let’s explore how the core Tampa metro counties are faring.

Hillsborough County Real Estate

Central Tampa Bay’s single-family home and condo sales remain sluggish. Year-to-date (YTD) sales for May 2024 were down 6.7% for single-family homes and 5.6% for condos. Sales activity hit a wall in March when sales plummeted by nearly 18%.

Still, housing prices keep appreciating. They are up 4.1% for the YTD, with May 2024 reporting buyers paid a median of $435,000 for a single-family home and $309,990 for a condo or townhome. For perspective, the national median home price at that time was $419,300. It was the highest price ever recorded.

Slower buying conditions and an increase in new listings left the market with a three-month supply of inventory, almost double from May 2023.

Following national trends, the local housing supply keeps growing. Home buyers had 17% more homes and 37% more townhomes or condos to consider than this time last year. Year-over-year, the number of Tampa area homes for sale increased by 62% for single-family and 121% for townhomes and condos. The time until going under contract is also longer. Tampa home sellers had a median of 32 days on the market.

Pinellas County

In the St. Petersburg metro region, single-family home sales are up 1.3%, buoyed by a strong April when sales increased by 22.3%. Otherwise, sales activity for most months this year has been less than last year.

Year-to-date, single-family home prices are up 7.4% across Pinellas County. In May 2024, buyers paid a median $485,000 to own a home here. For sellers, the median time to contract this year is 30 days, so around a month. That’s longer than in 2023. Part of that is the 31% growth in new listings, which has increased inventory. Buyers have more choices and time to make their purchase decisions.

Inventory is up 68% YTD, with May 2024 more than double last year’s level. The month ended with a 3.6-month supply.

The Pinellas condo and townhome market had a different annual growth rate. Closed sales hit the brakes, dropping 14% YTD. Where single-family home sales were strong in March 2024, they were the opposite for townhomes and condos, with 22% fewer transactions.

Pricing growth has stabilized at 2% for the year to date. All the months thus far fall around this year. Townhome buyers have spent a median of $298,750 thus far.  

Buyers have had 16% more new listings on the market thus far in 2024, helping the total active inventory grow by 88% year over year. At six months, the Pinellas condo market has achieved balance as of May 2024.

Sales Ahead

Sustained high mortgage rates and inflation are slowing market sales activity. This is enabling housing nationwide to start shifting more to a balanced market. We see that in pockets of the Tampa real estate market, like with Pinellas condos. This shift is anticipated to continue in the months ahead.

January 2024: Tampa New Listings and Prices Increase

The Tampa housing market trends followed the nation with fewer closed sales to start 2024. Around 7% fewer single-family homes sold, although condo sales did increase 4.5%. Pricing growth was sustained, with the greater metro reporting a 5.3% increase to a median sale price of $400,000. Overall, the Tampa metro had a 2.6-month supply of inventory. Here’s how that breaks down by county.

Hillsborough County

Single-family home sales were down almost 15% in January. Despite the smaller buyer pool, Tampa Bay’s median sale prices kept growing. The much more moderate 2.8% increase brought sale prices to $411,000, but that was down from the August 2023 peak of $445,000.

Part of the decline in closed sales has been the need for more active listings, as demand remains high. Homes were on the market four days less in January 2024–only 34 days. That, along with the 2.4-month inventory supply, shows that the market is nowhere near balance yet. New listings did increase by 8.5%, though. 

On the condo and townhome side of the market, closed sales increased by 2.4%. They rose in tandem with a 2.8% bump in median sale prices, bringing the cost to $287,725. These properties typically went under contract in 42 days, a 40% increase from January 2023. Even better news for home buyers is that the market saw an almost 17% increase in new listings. This rise in inventory helped the Hillsborough condo market’s monthly supply of inventory reach 3.2 months.

Pinellas County

Closed sales of single-family homes near St. Petersburg, Clearwater, and Palm Harbor increased by 4.6%. Even more notable? Median sale prices rose 14% to $455,000. A high percentage of buyers paid in cash for these homes–23%. 

Pinellas had a 2.8-month supply of inventory, and homes were moving. Compared to last year, the median time to contract dropped one day to 35 days. Despite being a seller’s market, the inventory has increased, thanks in part to a 26% increase in new listings for January 2024.

Data shows a different story for condos and townhomes, as closed sales fell 8.1%. These properties experienced price growth, but only 3.6% to $290,000. Their median days to contract increased by 68% to 47 days. 

The market segment was much closer to balance, with a 5-month supply of inventory. New listings in Pinellas condos increased by 32% for the month.  

Sales Ahead

The winter and early spring months typically are busier sales months in Florida, and listings tend to increase in response. Looking at the greater Tampa metro stats over time, there has been an increase in closed sales during these months. Increasing the active inventory in the months ahead will take more owners willing to sell.

October 2023: Sales Activity Picks Up For First Time in a Year 

Could the real estate market be turning around in the Tampa metro? The latest Tampa real estate market update shows closed single-family home sales increased for the first time in a year. But with a 2.3-month supply of inventory, the pressure persists on the median sale price, which grew to $415,000 for September. 

The greater Tampa area includes Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco, and Hernando Counties. Major cities inside this metro region are Tampa, St. Petersburg, and Clearwater. 

Recent Housing Market Statistics:

Hillsborough County

Sales on single-family homes in Hillsborough County gained a little bit of traction in September 2023, with 10% more than the prior year. One reason might be what happened in September 2022: Hurricane Ian swept through, putting a pause on all home buying activity when it threatened and impacted the Florida West Coast. 

For the month, homebuyers spent $427,111 for median sale price growth of 3%. 

Hillsborough still had a restricted supply, down to a 2.3-month supply of inventory. That’s barely more than the 2.2-months in September 2022. Home spent 23 days on market before receiving a contract. Note that the supply of inventory does tend to rise in the fall and shrink in the spring in the Hillsborough real estate market. 

September was the first month in the whole year that there was a positive change in the sales activity. It’s also the first month with positive year-over-year growth in the number of new listings, which is great news for buyers dealing with low inventory. Overall, the sales activity for the year is down by 13%, while median prices are up 1.7% for $421,950.

For townhomes and condos, the median housing prices reached $295,000, a 4.4% bump over September 2022. This segment remains competitive with a 19-day median time to contract in a 2.5-month supply of inventory. Overall, the housing market’s sales activity has decreased while sales prices continue increasing.

Pinellas County

Home to St. Petersburg, Clearwater, and Tarpon Springs, Pinellas County also reported an increase in home sales activity. A 10% increase in single-family home median sales price wasn’t enough to dampen the 6% YOY growth in closed sales. Home buyers paid $462,000 for Pinellas County homes in September 2023, with a median 16 days to contract. 

Meanwhile, sales in condos and townhomes increased even more significantly year over year, by 35%. These home buyers paid $341,000 for these properties, 16% more than the prior year. Even though the market had a 3.3-month supply of inventory, strong demand meant homes were going under contract in the median 24 days.

Like its Hillsborough County neighbor, the market has a very clear cycle with an increase in homes and condos for sale through the fall months. We can expect moving forward that sales activity in the Tampa Bay metro will increase as spring approaches.