South Carolina Update: Where Are Home Prices Falling?

We’ve talked about the recent spring 2023 numbers for home prices in South Carolina, and it’s clear that home sales have taken a big hit. Compared to April of last year, home sales have actually dropped by 23.4%. But now, we have some fresh data from South Carolina REALTORS. Are there any new developments? Let’s look at the state’s sales numbers to see where prices are headed.

South Carolina turns red–says home price data

The latest charts and figures from the South Carolina REALTORS show a lot of red. That’s because the total number of homes sold went down almost across the board. 

Overall, the number of homes sold in South Carolina decreased by 12.5% from May 2022 to May 2023, falling from 9,847 to 8,614. But the median price for all homes made a 1.5% bump upwards, moving from about $327,000 to $332,500.

However, just because fewer homes are selling doesn’t mean home prices are falling everywhere. In fact, there’s a stark contrast between the slipping home sales data and where the median prices land.

An example of what’s happening in South Carolina is exemplified in the Greater Columbia metro. As one of the more populated and economically stable MSAs, we have a large enough sample size to trust the data reflects the market. REALTORS data had 1,169 homes sold in May 2023, down 20% from May 2022, when 1,461 homes were sold.

Meanwhile, the median price of homes inched upward from $270,000 in 2022 to $270,981 in May 2023, a 0.4% bump. This modest price increase was relative to other regions and a change from the average 1.5% price increases across South Carolina.

What’s happening in South Carolina

Thus far, the May data keeps with the nationwide trend of fewer home sales but home price growth. Many experts point the finger at the lack of supply. Plenty of people need affordable homes, but not many are willing to sell when their mortgage rates may be better than what they can get now. It’s created what may feel like a stalemate for home buyers. 

But it doesn’t mean there are no homes available. We found areas where South Carolina home prices are falling in response to lower demand, signaling an opportunity for home buyers.

South Carolina markets with falling home prices

Of the 16 areas listed at South Carolina REALTORS, ten saw median home prices increase between May 2022 and May 2023. In the regions where home prices moved down, some made sharp drops.

The steepest fall came in the Sumter/Clarendon County MSA, where home prices slipped from $240,000 on average to $215,000, approximately a 10% drop. It’s common to see less-populated areas report some of the biggest swings, however, and even with Shaw Air Force Base nearby, these are less densely populated counties. Sumter/Clarendon County only saw 182 home sales in May 2023, putting it towards the bottom of the list.

But the price falls weren’t limited to rural reporting districts. The highly populated Charleston- Trident region, which saw a -18.3% fall in home sales between May 2022 and 2023, also saw its home prices decline. In this case, the change was a modest 1.2% and amounted to $5,000 on the median sales price. Still, given how prominent the Charleston Trident area is in South Carolina real estate, it’s a change worth noting.

A few other areas also reported lowering prices, with Cherokee County moving from $220,800 to $218,500, a -1.0% difference. In Greater Greenville, a slight 0.6% decline moved prices from $316,832 to $315,000.

Universal increases in days-on-market (DOM)

The one category that saw nearly every region moving in the same direction was the days on the market (DOM) from list to sale. The average days nearly uniformly lifted across the board, moving from 41 average days in May 2022 to 64 average days in May 2023.

This indicates that the housing market may be slowing down statewide as houses become more difficult to sell. Only Central Carolina, an area with 30 home sales in May 2023, saw a slightly faster DOM, but that number barely moved down 1.6%. For comparison, the DOM increased drastically in Charleston Trident (77.3%), Greater Greenville (120%), and Spartanburg (200%).

The future home price outlook for South Carolina

Though the main price charts may instill South Carolina homeowners with a sense of confidence that homes are still selling for high prices and therefore maintaining their value, signs of a shift are coming. The days-on-market shows how the market is changing. If prices are similar year-over-year, but it’s becoming more difficult to sell, there may be more pressure to price-correct in the South Carolina real estate market in the coming months. That’s particularly true if interest rates remain high, making it more difficult for home buyers to secure the mortgages that make home purchases happen.