January 2024: Miami Inventory Hits Balance to Start 2024

Miami has long been a hot market in South Florida, and the experts think that will mostly stay the same in 2024. As the year began, the Miami Realtors data showed a market much closer to balance than other major US metros. Inventory was up. 

However, Miami real estate, like most of South Florida’s fastest markets, is highly cyclical. January kicks off the “busy season” for sales activity, so it makes sense that more owners are now putting their homes on the market. More people are in the area looking to buy. Here’s the shakedown for the first month of the year. 

Miami-Dade County Single-Family Home Sales

The trends persisted from late 2023. Closed sales of Miami single-family homes across the county were down 22% month-to-month (MOM) but only 2.2% year-to-year (YOY). 

However, closed sales activity may turn as the spring real estate season kicks off. Already, January’s pending sales are up 7.8% YOY and 53% MOM. 

The single-family home market has a 6.7-month supply of inventory, which slightly favors home buyers. The inventory is at its highest level since January 2023, when it was 6.5 months. Last spring, the single-family home inventory quickly fell to 2.9 months by March 2023. That’s something to be aware of if you want to buy a home in Miami. 

Demand is keeping home prices elevated. The January 2024 median sold price of $644,000 was almost $101,000 more than last year, representing significant gains despite higher mortgage rates in 2023. 

Miami-Dade County Condo Sales

Greater Miami’s housing stock consists mainly of condos and townhomes. It was almost twice the number of current single-family home listings in March 2024.

Closed condo sales for January 2024 show a 15% YOY drop in activity and a 26% month-to-month drop. Even pending sales are down compared to last year, but they’re more than December 2023. 

Those searching for a Miami area condo or townhome in January had some good news: an incredible 11.6-month supply of inventory. It’s the highest number of condos for sale over the last 14 months. Buyers had 49% more homes to look at.

The high number of listings is bringing stability to area condo prices. The $415,000 median sold price is the same as the prior month and just $15,000 more year-over-year. 

Miami Home Sales

Drilling down to the City of Miami real estate market, the 644 closed sales in January 2024 represent an 8.6% YOY bump in activity. Buyers paid a median of $630,000 for a Miami home. These homes were moving in around a month, with the median time to contract at 32 days. The supply of inventory increased to 4.4 months.

For condos, sales activity dropped almost 5% to 770 closings. The median sale price of $405,750 was 1.4% more than last year. This stabilization in price growth reflects the higher inventory of condos, which was a 7.4-month supply. That’s 68% more than January 2023, when the supply was four months. 

In the early spring, closed sales will likely bump up in Miami following cyclical trends. The result will be reduced inventory across single-family homes and condos paired with pricing gains. 

December 2023: Miami Townhomes and Condo Sales Set Strong Fall Figures

With higher mortgage rates and limited supply, affordability challenged the nationwide real estate market in October. Locally, the fall is traditionally a slower time for the Miami-Dade real estate market, which sees more activity in the winter and spring as part-timers look for vacation homes or to make the Florida lifestyle more permanent. How did that play out for 2023?

Miami-Dade Single-Family Homes

October brought much of the same in the Miami & South Florida real estate market. Single-family home sales declined by 1.5%, while the median sale price increased by 7.5% to $575,000. Luckily for home searchers, new listings increased 6.8%. Unfortunately, it wasn’t enough to bump the total active listings down 14.3% year-over-year. Miami-Dade had a four-month supply of inventory. 

The quarterly sales report shows that Miami-Dade single-family homes are moving the most in Miami, Miami Gardens, and Homestead. But the highest median prices were in the following South Florida locations:

• Golden Beach: $6.85 million
• Bal Harbour: $6.8 million
• Miami Beach: $3.3 million
• Bay Harbour Islands: $3.075 million
• Key Biscayne: $2.5 million

 The most affordable homes in the local housing market were found in:

• Gladeview: $345,000
• Opa-Locka: $395,000
• Brownsville: $413,500
• Naranja: $430,000
• West Little River: $430,000

Miami-Dade Townhomes and Condos

Townhome and condo properties comprise a significant slice of the South Florida and Miami Dade County housing market. They had 7% fewer closed sales in October than last year, but that didn’t stop the median price from rising 4% to $405,000. And even though closed sales are down, when you step back to look at month-to-month performance, it’s the lowest YOY decline all year. After all, home sales in December 2022 and January 2023 tanked 50%.

Good news for home buyers: More inventory was on the market, this time buoyed by a 13% increase in new listings. The condo and townhome market now stood at 6.3 months, which experts consider a balanced market. 

We don’t have a report showing monthly sales by city in this metro, but the third quarter report does reveal where homes are moving. Miami and Miami Beach reported the most closed sales for townhomes and condos, at 781 and 444, respectively. Bal Harbour and Key Biscayne condo sales had median prices over $1 million.

Future predictions

Home prices may stabilize as high interest rates persist, although not all market segments in Miami are impacted equally. Watch new listings to see if more continue to come to market. There may be a slowdown or pause around the holiday season, with an uptick when 2024 starts. 

August 2023: New listings down, but pending sales show optimism

Could the Miami metro real estate market be stabilizing? The figures from the Miami Association of Realtors suggest that might be possible. The news comes on the heels of other outlets and data sources showing a potential turnaround in nationwide real estate sales activity in late summer 2023. 

The Miami-Dade County August 2023 sales figures include the Cities of Miami, Miami Beach, Coral Gables, Hialeah, Pinecrest, and Homestead.  

Single-family homes in Miami Dade County

People still want homes in Miami, but there’s simply not enough of them. For August 2023, new listings were down 14% year-over-year (YOY) but 4.6% from July 2023. This continues the downward trend posted in July 2023, when closed sales dropped almost 9% YOY. But pending sales activity didn’t change much, with just a 1% downshift from the prior year and a 3% jump over last month.

The low inventory is keeping tropical Miami’s home prices hot. Median sold prices may be down about 2% from last month, but they’re up almost 12% compared to August 2022. The July 2023 median sales price for single-family homes reached $631,670.

 Dade County ended August with a 3.5-month supply of inventory, a figure that has been on the rise since March 2023. It may be above last year’s 2.7-month supply but well below its January 2023 peak of 6.5 months.

 Early data indicators for the first weeks of September show a continuing drop in listings and closed sales year-over-year. But keeping with the last two-month trend, pending sales were up by almost 8%. Could sales activity be rebounding?

How single-family homes are selling locally

The association’s breakdown of local market performance on single-family homes shows a few neighborhoods had positive closed sales growth year-over-year. The ones who had more than five homes sell and had positive change were:

• Aventura: 33%
• Brownsville: 10%
• Florida City: 33%
• Glenvar Heights: 26%
• Hialeah Gardens: 50%
• North Miami Beach: 26%
• Palm Springs North: 80%
• Sweetwater: 50%
• University Park: 6%
• Westchester: 2%

The Miami neighborhoods with the highest median list prices were:

• Bay Harbour Islands: $4,203,750
• Golden Beach: $4,200,000
• Key Biscayne: $3,750,000
• Miami Beach: $2,950,000
• Pinecrest: $2,350,000

Condos and townhomes in Dade County

Miami Realtors considered condos and townhomes activity “neutral” in August 2023, with a year-over-year drop in closed sales and new listings. It’s on the heels of the considerable slowdown from July 2023, where closed sales declined by 17%. However, August had a 16% uptick in month-to-month pending sales so that more sales activity could be on the horizon.

The metro had almost double the number of condo and townhome listings than single-family homes for sale, resulting in a 5.5 months’ supply of inventory. This was up 34% from August 2022 but lower than the 8-month peak reported in January 2023.

Prices for this market segment changed little month-over-month but gained 12% from last year. The median list price hovered around $420,000.

The early data from September 2023 shows listings are up, but the current pace of closed sales was 55% below last year’s rate.

Where condo sales are happening

Looking at the second quarterly update from the City of Miami, a few of its neighborhoods did have positive closed sales growth for townhomes and condos. These were in:

• Glenvar Heights: 11.8%
• Miami Gardens: 11.9%
• Opalocka: 100%
• Princeton: 60.5%
• Richmond West: 83.3%
• Surfside: 6.3%
• University Park: 20%
• West Little River: 50%

Keep in mind some of these neighborhoods had few listings in the condo category, like Opalocka, where the year-over-year closed listings went from one home to two homes, hence 100% growth. 

 The neighborhoods with the Q2 2023 highest median list prices were:

• Aventura: $453,500
• Doral: $450,000
• Miami Lakes: $462,000
• South Miami: $430,000
• Three Lakes: $480,000
• Westview: $475,000

Frequently Asked Questions About Miami Real Estate Market Update

What is the most expensive area to live in Miami?

The most expensive area to live in Miami is Star Island, located in Miami Beach. This exclusive neighborhood is renowned for its luxury estates, which average around $30 million. Other high-end areas include Indian Creek Island, known as the “Billionaire Bunker,” with home list prices averaging nearly $20 million, and Fisher Island, where the average home list price is around $7.2 million.

Is buying property in Miami a good investment?

Yes, it can. Miami’s real estate market has consistently grown due to its desirable climate, cultural diversity, and economic opportunities. Its strong rental market also offers potential rental income, making it attractive for short-term and long-term investments.

Where is the best place to invest in real estate in Miami?

The best places to invest in Miami real estate include neighborhoods like Brickell, Edgewater, and Downtown Miami. These areas are experiencing significant development and offer high rental yields due to their proximity to business districts, amenities, and entertainment options. Neighborhoods like Coconut Grove and Coral Gables provide stable investment opportunities with their established markets and high-quality properties. Let’s see the areas in more detail:

Brickell

Known as Miami’s financial district, Brickell is a top choice for real estate investment due to its thriving commercial and residential development. It offers luxury condos, high-end dining, and a bustling nightlife, making it attractive for renters and buyers.

Downtown Miami

This area is continuously growing with new residential and commercial projects. As a central hub for business and culture, it draws a diverse range of residents, enhancing its appeal as a prime location for real estate investors.

Edgewater

With its waterfront views and close proximity to Downtown and Midtown, Edgewater is experiencing significant real estate and population growth. The development of new luxury condos is increasing the attractiveness of upscale rental properties.

Coconut Grove

One of Miami’s oldest neighborhoods, Coconut Grove offers a blend of historical charm and modern luxury. Coconut Grove has excellent schools and a laid-back atmosphere, making it appealing for families and long-term investors.

Miami Beach

South Beach, in particular, remains a lucrative investment spot due to its global reputation, tourism appeal, and high rental demand. Its luxurious lifestyle and strong short-term rental market contribute to its investment potential.

Wynwood

Known for its artsy vibe and eclectic community feel, Wynwood is rapidly transforming with new residential and commercial projects. It’s a great area for investors looking for trendy, up-and-coming neighborhoods with potential for appreciation.

Coral Gables

This affluent and historic neighborhood is known for its Mediterranean-style architecture, tree-lined streets, and top-rated schools. Coral Gables offers a high quality of life with its upscale amenities, including fine dining, shopping, and cultural attractions. Its stable real estate market and desirable location make it a strong choice for long-term investment.

What’s the average square foot price in Miami?

As of 2024, the average price per square foot for residential properties in Miami is approximately $519. This figure represents the median listing price, reflecting the overall market trend for various residential properties, including single-family homes, condos, and townhouses. This figure is significantly higher than the national average of around $233 per square foot​. The price per square foot can vary significantly depending on the specific neighborhood, type of property, and proximity to desirable locations such as waterfronts or downtown areas.

Why is Miami getting so expensive?

Miami is becoming increasingly expensive due to several factors, including its popularity as a destination for international buyers and investors, limited housing supply, and strong demand driven by the city’s vibrant lifestyle and favorable tax environment. According to several real estate market predictions, the influx of high-net-worth individuals seeking luxury real estate will continue contributing to rising prices and a competitive market.

Is it a buyer’s or seller’s market in Miami?

Currently, Miami is considered a seller’s market. The high demand for properties and low inventory levels have resulted in rising home prices and competitive bidding situations. This trend is expected to continue as more people seek to move to Miami for its lifestyle and economic opportunities.

What is the future of the Miami housing market?

The future of the Miami housing market looks positive, with steady demand and continued growth expected. No wonder millionaires like Jeff Bezos have invested in the local market. Factors such as ongoing urban development, infrastructure improvements, and Miami’s appeal as a global city will likely sustain demand for real estate. However, potential economic fluctuations and interest rate changes could impact the market dynamics.

Will home prices drop in Miami in 2024?

It is unlikely that home prices in Miami will drop significantly in 2024. While market corrections and slight adjustments may occur, the overall real estate market trend points to sustained or even increasing property values due to strong demand and limited supply. Any price reductions would likely be modest and localized rather than a widespread market downturn.

Which real estate markets near Miami should investors consider for additional opportunities?

Investors looking to diversify their real estate portfolios beyond Miami can explore several neighboring markets that offer strong growth potential and attractive investment opportunities in Florida:

Fort Lauderdale: Situated just north of Miami, Fort Lauderdale’s real estate market thrives thanks to its desirable coastal lifestyle, strong tourism industry, and expanding infrastructure. Fort Lauderdale offers a range of investment options across several attractive zip codes, encompassing everything from luxury waterfront properties to multifamily units at affordable housing prices.

West Palm Beach: As part of the Miami metropolitan area, West Palm Beach is experiencing significant growth. Palm Beach’s real estate market benefits from a mix of cultural amenities, beautiful beaches, and a vibrant downtown area, making it a hotspot for investors of all kinds.

Sarasota: Sarasota, located on Florida’s Gulf Coast, is leading the list of top real estate markets for 2024. The city is known for its vibrant cultural scene, high quality of life, and relatively affordable property prices, attracting both residential buyers and investors.

Fort Myers: This rapidly growing market is seeing a substantial increase in new housing units and population. Fort Myers offers diverse investment opportunities in residential and commercial real estate, supported by its strong economic growth and appealing coastal environment.

Orlando: Known globally for its tourism industry, Orlando’s real estate market benefits from a steady influx of visitors and new residents. The city’s expanding population and diverse economy provide a stable foundation for long-term real estate investments​.

Jacksonville: Located in northern Florida, Jacksonville is gaining attention for its affordable real estate and high quality of life. The city’s diverse economy and expanding job market make it an attractive option for investors seeking growth opportunities outside Miami.

These neighboring markets offer a mix of high rental yields, strong appreciation potential, fastest-growing real estate values, and diverse property options, making them excellent choices for investors aiming to diversify their portfolios beyond Miami. Talk to one of our local partners (real estate agents) in Miami about everything the city offers.